OCTOBER 26, 2017
THE QUEBEC TIMES
The RAND study notes that Russia could take all three Baltic States in less than 36 hours, using conventional weapons. “Two years for development of strategy and simulation show that if Russia would have had a quick attack against the Baltic States, the forces of Moscow would get the surroundings of Tallinn and the Latvian capital of Riga for 36-60 hours,” assesses the situation RAND.
Analyst at the Center for analysis of Navy Jeff Edmonds agrees that the Russians will be able to prevail in the Baltic States available forces. “The Russians were by far the predominate and can quickly gain an advantage,” said Edmonds in the comments of the National Interest.
However, the National Interest notes that the RAND analysis does not account for the response of NATO or nuclear escalation.
The probability of invasion of Russia to Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia is very low, said the National Interest, because the membership of the Baltic countries in NATO is holding back Russian aggression.
Moreover, the Kremlin has a limited ability to attack the Baltic countries, even if they wanted to. “The most ordinary of arms of Moscow is concentrated in other places – it takes time to gather power, is able to repel the offensive of NATO. The Kremlin would be difficult to redeploy forces from the Ukrainian border to the Baltic countries”, – notes the edition.
spite provocations from the air and sea that occur in the region, Russian forces that are there, are mainly defensive and outdated. There is evidence that the change in volume and capacity is inevitable, but it will be gradual, partly reacting to that, what forces will place NATO”, – says researcher Michael Coffman’s publications for Harvard’s center.
Analysts rule out the possibility of deploying Russia’s hybrid war in the Baltic States. The Kremlin has no possibility to use ethnic Russians in the region, the newspaper writes. “The hybrid war in the style of the Crimea and Donbas is hardly possible in the Baltic States and Poland,” writes Dmitri Trenin of the Moscow Carnegie Center. “Although Latvia and Estonia have complicated the naturalization of Russians, they do not appeal to Moscow for protection and guidance. Daugavpils of Donetsk and Narva – not Lugansk
