By Darius Furmonavicius
“Anyone who would choose Lithuania as an enemy has also made an enemy of the United States of America,” stated President George W. Bush during his visit to Lithuania in 2002. Politically, the Baltic countries became an inseparable part of the West by joining NATO and the EU in 2004. They celebrated the centenary of diplomatic relations with the USA in 2022.
Permanent U.S. military presence in the Baltic countries
The Baltic countries have hosted rotational U.S. battalions in Lithuania since 2019, U.K.-led NATO troops in Estonia, Canadian-led NATO troops in Latvia and German-led NATO troops in Lithuania. A permanent American presence in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania would further bolster U.S. and transatlantic security by ensuring that the “Suwalki Corridor” from Poland to Lithuania remains open. A U.S. presence would also clearly indicate to both NATO allies and adversaries that the territorial integrity and independence of the Baltic countries is of vital interest, as well as fill gaps in Baltic defense capabilities, providing the Baltics with confidence, and enabling stronger NATO deterrence of attacks from Russia. Enhancing American deterrent posture in the Baltic region would significantly reduce the probability of a Kremlin challenge.
Defense of the Baltic countries
2024 defense budgets in the Baltics were 3.43% of GDP in Estonia, 3.15 % of GDP in Latvia and 3.2% of GDP in Lithuania. In January 2024 Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania agreed to build a defense line against Russia. Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal, Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silina and Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte agreed to complete the integration of the Baltic countries into the European electricity grid on February 8, 2025.
Ukraine must win the war
The Baltic countries once again changed the course of history by supplying Ukraine with weapons before the February 24, 2022, invasion by Russia. The Kremlin’s plan to capture Kiev and all of Ukraine in a few days failed partly because of this allocation of supplies. Before the Kremlin invaded Ukraine on the 24th of February 2022, Estonia granted Ukraine over a third of its entire defense budget and Latvia granted close to a third. Lithuania was the first NATO state to supply ammunition to Ukraine following Russia’s occupation of Crimea in 2014.
The Kremlin must lose this current war. An ambivalent war outcome, says Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, will not bring security to Europe. If Putin succeeds in achieving territorial gains, Russia will renew its war in Ukraine and elsewhere in the
future. According to former Russian Prime Minister Kasyanov, if the Kremlin isn’t stopped in Ukraine, its next target will be the Baltics.
NATO membership for Ukraine
Liberating the whole of Ukraine from Russian occupation and inviting Ukraine to join NATO must be the key foreign policy priorities for the United States at the NATO summit in Hague in June 2025. This is the only way to deter a Russian attack on NATO, including the United States, in the future.
In addition, to truncate the funding of Putin’s war, the United States must place an international embargo on all Kremlin oil exports. If the Kremlin is not stopped in Ukraine, the probability of a war between Russia and NATO will increase greatly. For example, an estimated 12,000 North Korean soldiers are serving under Russian command, some in Ukraine. It is, therefore important that the United States accomplishes a strategic victory over Russia by helping Ukraine to achieve full liberation of her territory and the disintegration of the Russian Empire as soon as possible.
Only the United States can provide Ukraine with all the required weapons, including long-range missiles, tanks and planes. According to Senator James E. Risch, the US administration should provide Ukraine with everything possible to protect against Russian aggression. Additionally, only the United States can adequately mobilize production.
In short, U.S. military assistance in the Baltic countries is vital to the stability and security of Europe and of the whole transatlantic alliance and it is going to be less expensive to deter Russia from possible aggression than to engage with Russia in direct military conflict.
A new world order, according to President Zelenskyy, should be along these lines: Russia must withdraw all its military forces to a few hundred miles from its border, from all Ukrainian territories and from all the territories conquered and illegally annexed by the Soviet Union. Ukraine has also recognized the territorial integrity of Japan. Russia must eventually withdraw from the Northern Territories of Japan as well as from all other regions still occupied since the Second World War. It will be important to bring the Kremlin’s war criminals to justice, and to dismantle its nuclear, biological and chemical weapons, facilitating the disintegration of the Russian Empire. All currency reserves of the Kremlin’s terrorist regime must be used for the rebuilding of Ukraine and paying compensations to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and other neighboring countries for the occupations and the illegal annexations of their territories in 1940-1941 and 1944-1990.
DARIUS FURMONAVICIUS, PhD is a member of the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London and on BAFL’s Board of Directors.
