According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, North Korean fields an estimated 1,280,000 active duty soldiers. Of these, it is unknown how many have combat experience, whether as mercenaries or as participants in any clandestine operations worldwide. An estimated 1,500 special operations forces have already been dispatched to Russia, with an additional 10,000 soldiers currently fighting under Russian command in Ukraine. The potential for these figures to grow dramatically remains a key concern for Ukraine.
For Pyongyang, the strategic benefits outweigh the costs. If even 90% of those sent abroad are killed in action or permanently maimed, it has gained a resource capable of passing on vital knowledge to their military as a whole. In effect, sharpening a knife before use, trading expendable lives for invaluable military experience in a modern war.
This represents a threat not only for Ukraine, but a direct challenge against the major non-NATO U.S. allies of Japan and South Korea. Together with the signing of the North Korean–Russian Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership on June 18th of this year, it is clear that Vladimir Putin has no intentions of slowing down his war of conquest. The transfer of additional weapons technologies from Russia to North Korea appears inevitable.
Furthermore, these developments emphasize the need to bolster U.S. allies in the Asia-Pacific region, which could lead to a shift in resources away from Europe and Ukraine. Is it probable that North Korea will open a new front by attacking South Korea? A full-scale attack is unlikely; rather, it is more probable to be the beginning of a more aggressive posture along the Demilitarized Zone between North and South Korea, potentially including border skirmishes and limited artillery shelling. Such mistakes can quickly escalate, leading to unintended regional consequences.
GINTAS KAZLAUSKAS, PhD (cand.) is a doctoral candidate of history at Claremont Graduate University and on BAFL’s Board of Directors.
